Getting to 2050

The dimensions of the coming change are staggering.  The first half of the 21^st Century will be transformative.  At the beginning of this century, North America and Europe accounted for over 60% of the world’s middle class spending; only 10% took place in Asia. By 2050, these proportions will more than reverse, European and North American middle class spending will account for 30% of the world total; China, India, and other Asian countries will be 60%[1]. The human population could increase by 2 billion people in that same time span (the equivalent of the entire human population alive in the 1930s!) and the percentage of us living in cities will increase from 50% to over 70%.  Everything will be more interconnected, faster paced, and frequently shocked by digital information, resource shortages, climate change, financial bubbles, and social unrest.  Natural resource shortages and degraded ecosystem services are already presenting significant business risks. A recent survey found 76% of executives from transnational corporations expect their core business objectives to be affected by natural resource shortages in the immediate future.[2]

You can feel the strain when walking the streets of Mumbai, Shanghai, and Detroit.   The world is at a crossroads[3]. Either the global community will coalesce around the project of sustainable development or we will fracture into resource wars, political instability, and ecological collapse.

The transformation will create unprecedented opportunities.  Imagine the best possible future these trends might create: a world full of empowered, wealthy, peaceful, healthy,  communities, each thriving in their distinctive local bio-cultural conditions, each trading their own distinctive qualities and advantages, each pursuing solutions, hopes and dreams. What skill sets will be in demand? How will your organization, your community, and your country respond?  What role will you play?

America needs change agents willing to influence the  development trajectory leading towards 2050.  We must face the challenges confronting us and grasp the opportunities the transformation will create.

Bold initiatives are needed,  collaboration is essential, and  fundamentally new models of business and governance must emerge.    A desirable future can be constructed but it requires bringing together diverse communities of knowledge, power, and influence, adapting what works, and creating space for change to happen.